March Madness is fast approaching, and 68 men’s teams are set to battle it out in the single elimination tournament to see who will win the National Championship. Names, Image, and Likeness (NIL), as well as the transfer portal have created roster chaos for coaches to manage. Yet once March rolls around, the focus is on games played and surviving each test, hoping to reach the Final Four and perhaps even snag the national crown.
The plethora of data available gives analytics aficionados a cornucopia of information to weigh every match-up and pick unthinkable upsets. Will a No. 1 seed fall to a No. 16 seed? Probably not. While a 11-6 upset is almost certain to occur (it has happened in every tournament since 2005), picking which one it will be is challenging.
So which data may provide the most useful information in picking your National Champion?
Ken Pomeroy (known as kenpom) has created a system by which offenses and defenses are evaluated. Though his formula is proprietary, he does outline an overview of how each team’s adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency are calculated. These values, based on performance over the season, are predictive, hence provide measures for how well teams will perform on the court.
Looking back from the 2001-2002 season to 2024-2025 (23 seasons), the rankings of the adjusted offensive efficiencies and adjusted defensive efficiencies of the eventual national champions at the end of the season (hence after they won the National Championship) are informative.
What is clear is that defense matters, but offense matters even more.
Of the 23 National Champions, five were ranked 1st in offence, six were ranked 2nd, four were ranked 3rd, five were ranked between 4th and 9th. That left three teams (Syracuse in 2002-2003, Connecticut in both 2010-2011 and 2013-2014) without a top 10 ranked offense. Clearly, having an elite, powerhouse offense makes a difference.
Defense was far less informative. Of the National Champions, 13 had adjusted defensive efficiencies ranked between 1st and 9th, nine were ranked between 10th and 19th, and one had an adjusted defensive efficiency above 20 (Baylor in 2020-2021).
If we look at the sum of the adjusted offensive efficiencies and adjusted defensive efficiencies, 16 of the 23 National Champions were 15th or better, four were between 16th and 24th, and three were 25th or higher.
Given all such information, which teams this season have kenpom profiles trending towards a National Championship? Arizona, Michigan, Duke, and Florida are four teams that have numbers that resemble those of prior National Champions.
Houston’s adjusted offensive efficiency is top 20, while its adjusted defensive efficiency is elite. These numbers are close enough to put them into the mix for cutting down the nets on April 6.
So who are the teams that could make some noise, but are also vulnerable to being upset early in the tournament?
Illinois and Purdue have highly ranked adjusted offensive efficiencies. Their weaknesses are their adjusted defensive efficiencies, which are outside the top 20. If either of them can tighten their defenses, they may move their numbers into the zone of National Champions.
What about Michigan State, Iowa State, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Nebraska, and Kansas? All excellent teams with very strong defenses, but their kenpom adjusted offensive efficiencies do not fit the most likely profile of a National Champion at this time. Amongst this group. Connecticut is perhaps the closest to breaking into the top group.
Yet upsets occur, which is how Connecticut won the National Championship in 2013-2014 with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 39th and an adjusted defensive efficiency ranked 10th. As a No. 7 seed, they upset No. 2 Villanova, No. 3 Iowa State, and No. 4 Michigan State on their way to the Final Four, where they proceeded to defeat No. 1 Florida and No. 8 Kentucky.
So should one of Arizona, Michigan, Duke, or Florida be anointed the national crown? Hardly. Games are played on a court, not on a computer. They cannot even be guaranteed to all reach the Final Four. Once the games begin, anything can happen. Teams that are known for making three pointers (like St. Louis or Texas Tech) may suddenly go cold at the wrong time. Team that struggled to grab offensive rebound all season (like Nebraska or Iowa) find their touch and grab key rebounds at the right moment in a game. Such is the madness that permeates the tournament, giving fans hope for a victory when the odds scream that it is not possible.
Nothing is guaranteed in March Madness. The kenpom numbers provide valuable information. Yet at the end of the day, the team that wins six games over 19 days will cut down the net and win the National Championship, which is how it should be.