Republicans in Congress are about to step on an electoral landmine. The House of Representatives is working on a budget plan that will make deep cuts to Medicaid. President Donald J. Trump has been clear that he is opposed to cuts to Medicaid. If Congress listens to President Trump and looks at polling data, they will run away from proposals that would cut a program that serves a large swath of the very voters who elected President Trump and allowed Republicans to control of both the House and Senate.
The approximately 70 million Americans depend on Medicaid. It is a program where the federal government provides grants to states for health care and serves about one if five Americans. President Trump could not be more direct when he said, as quoted by USA Today on April 13, 2025, “I’ve said it so many times that you shouldn’t even be asking me that question. We’re not going to touch it. Now, we are going to look for fraud.” Americans support rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in federal programs, but they don’t support the idea of across-the-board cuts to programs that will take away benefits from those who are in need and not fraudsters.
The polling data is clear that Trump voters don’t want cuts to Medicaid. A poll conducted by Tony Fabrizio, a Trump campaign pollster, found that 40% of Trump voters have used Medicaid or had a family member use it. Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio was quoted as arguing “Medicaid has touched so many families that people have made up their minds about what they don’t want to see cut.” McLaughlin & Associates poll had similar results with them finding 88% support for Medicaid and a large majority saying they will not support candidates who support cutting up to $880 billion from the program. The takeaway is that MAGA supporting voters don’t want Medicaid touched.
The House of Representatives is pushing some deep cuts to the popular program. Reuters reported on April 28, 2025, “concerns about Medicaid among a dozen House Republicans and several Senate Republicans have prompted Trump and party leaders to assure lawmakers that savings will not lead to benefit cuts.” This has opened the door for Democrats like highest ranking Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, to proclaim that Republicans “want to enact the largest Medicaid cut in American history. That is going to hurt families, hurt children, hurt seniors, hurt people with disabilities, hurt everyday Americans.” President Trump has been clear that cuts to those in need are not on the table.
These proposed cuts have scared seniors, because they hear the talk of cuts to entitlement programs and worry that nursing home coverage and other benefits will be impacted. Factor in the political calculation that seniors vote in a disproportionally higher percentages in midterm elections. With a slim majority in the House, just the fear factor of cuts may drive many Republican minded seniors to stay home or vote against those who support a budget that cuts their benefits.
Swing district Republicans demonstrate growing apprehension about the situation. A letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-KY) expressed their concerns to him. The signers of the letter maintain that they will never back a final reconciliation bill which reduces Medicaid coverage for at-risk groups. The letter signers share their agreement about reforming waste elimination but maintain their opposition to any reductions that would harm their constituents.
The Republican Party and President Trump can defend Americans’ health through Medicaid protection especially in rural areas that need medical care. The program’s protection serves two purposes because it fulfills present healthcare requirements and develops community healthcare infrastructure and supports regional economic development.
The reconciliation measure functions to cut federal spending which will fund the continuation of the 2017 Trump tax cuts extension. The tax cuts gained widespread support which led to positive economic development. The continuation of tax benefits for many people does not justify the harm that Medicaid recipients would face from benefit reductions. The most effective solution would be to preserve tax cuts and implement workforce reductions through congressional budget cuts identification. The potential cuts to benefits for many Trump voters create a risk that they will stay home from voting during midterm elections when President Trump does not appear on the ballot.
President Trump has shown through his actions that Medicaid protection represents both his political position and his dedication to protecting the health of millions of Americans. President Trump needs to remind Republicans about the importance of Medicaid protection to build a secure and healthy environment for everyone.