Is Donald Trump an autocrat? He said he wanted to be a dictator on day one and even distributed a picture of himself in a crown. His defenders say, “No way. He was just kidding. Trump can’t be a dictator. He was chosen by the people in a free and fair election. Kings and tsars put tanks and troops in the streets.”
But that’s not always how it happens. Today, many authoritarians consolidate their power after winning elections. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Viktor Orban of Hungary are perfect examples. I’m not saying Trump is Hitler, but even Hitler came in first in an election before becoming Nazi Germany’s totalitarian Fuhrer.
Forget ideology. It doesn’t matter that Chavez governed from the ‘left’ and Orban governs from the ‘right.’ It doesn’t affect the ways they accumulate power. Frankly, if one asked the people of Venezuela, Hungary, or Weimar Germany if they were voting to live under an autocratic regime, they probably would have said no. But that’s where they ended up.
How can people know a leader is moving a country toward autocracy? Here’s a ten-point playbook on how it happens, and Donald Trump has ticked most of the boxes already.
First, elected autocrats remove qualified civil servants and replace them with people whose main qualification is political loyalty. Trump, aided by eccentric, unaccountable gazillionaire Elon Musk, is already doing this. His government is firing tens of thousands of civil servants, and he has even created a new class of senior federal personnel called “Schedule F” who can be fired at any time for any reason.
Second, they use law enforcement, justice departments, and presidential pardons to benefit their friends and pursue their political enemies. Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi has dropped charges against Trump’s Mar a Lago staff who helped him hide classified documents and even Democrats like indicted Mayor Eric Adams in an apparent trade for supporting Trump’s immigration crackdown. He even pardoned hundreds of people who stormed the U.S. Capitol in his name and were convicted of violently attacking Capitol Police.
Third, the legislature becomes subservient to the leader and no longer acts as a constitutional check on the executive. The Republican House and Senate have not actively defended congressionally enacted laws when Trump tramples on them or their constitutional power of the purse.
Fourth, the intending autocrat turns the nation away from fellow democracies and toward other dictators. The world is watching in real time as Trump drives the United States away from its long-time democratic allies and toward lawless rulers in Russia and elsewhere. His Oval Office bullying of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is only the latest example.
Fifth, the autocrat directs his ire against an enemy, foreign or domestic, to rile up his supporters, distract from real problems, and create a scapegoat for anything that ails us. Trump has unleashed his vicious rhetoric against Democrats, the press, the courts, immigrants, DEI, transgender people, and anyone else he can demonize, all to sidetrack people from the problems he’s creating.
Sixth, a climate of fear descends on the government, the press, universities, and government-adjacent communities. We’ve watched that as owners of the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times killed editorial endorsements of Kamala Harris, as civil servants have become scared to do their jobs in case their work offends Trump, and as non-governmental entities toe the line so that funding won’t be cut, as The Nature Conservancy did by adopting Trump’s term for the Gulf of Mexico.
Seventh, courts feel pressure to scale back their determinations out of fear that the autocrat will attack their decisions. With no enforcement arm of their own, courts face the danger of a President refusing to enforce their rulings, creating the most serious of constitutional crises. Trump has said he would not violate a judicial order, but several courts have found that his Administration has not complied with their rulings.
Eighth, the intending autocrat unleashes a barrage of propaganda to target political enemies and lie about basic facts to the point where many believe the false narrative or are unable or too exhausted to recognize the truth. Trump consistently pushed his “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was stolen and lied that Russia didn’t start the war in Ukraine. He weaved his tangled tale about January 6 as a “day of love” and the attackers as “patriots” so many times that many stopped believing what they saw with their own eyes.
Ninth, the autocrat coopts wealthy benefactors who, in turn, use their money to bolster him and oppose those who stand in his way. Trump has lined his path with billionaires, like Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson, both of whom spent more than $100 million on Trump’s 2024 campaign, while Musk threatens Republicans who oppose Trump initiatives that he will financially back their primary opponents.
Finally, the autocrat employs the tools of state to build political support. Of course, it’s normal in a democracy for an elected leader to use the bully pulpit for political purposes. But Trump is likely to exercise that power in ways others haven’t, such as when the US government sent stimulus checks with his signature to the American people, an action he plans to repeat.
All of this doesn’t mean that the Trump autocracy is unstoppable. As he consolidates power, there are forces which can stand up to him.
Federal courts are a vital constitutional check on the executive branch and have already halted some of Trump’s extralegal actions. They blocked his executive order purporting to ban birthright citizenship and stopped mass firings of probationary employees and key independent executive branch officials, including Senate-approved members of the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board which reviews whether firings of federal employees are legal.
But these cases are facing appeal and will likely reach the Supreme Court. With its six to three majority selected by Republican presidents, three of whom by Trump, himself, any dispute which reaches the high court faces an uphill battle. If the Court finds in favor of the President, he could upend Congress’s constitutional ‘power of the purse’ and have an unfettered ability to fire additional independent federal officials, such as inspectors general of cabinet departments. While the high court recently rejected Trump’s bid to freeze $2 billion in foreign aid, the narrow 5-4 majority’s rather modest decision does not offer much insight into its future approach to Trump’s autocratic designs.
Above the courts, the real power in our system rests with the people. Even in electoral autocracies, the ability to vote out the leader remains mostly intact. It may be more difficult with the autocrat dominating the media, confusing the electorate, threatening opponents, and deploying billions of oligarchs’ dollars, but the electoral franchise still exists.
The success of a campaign against Trump will come down to an energized electorate, and no one is better at turning out the vote than Trump, himself…for and against him. Today, the polls are turning on Trump as people see him go too far in cutting valued government services like Medicaid or veterans’ benefits. Having Elon Musk take a wrecking ball to the government and access Americans’ personal information is amplifying the anger. As Trump’s tariffs raise prices and stymie the economy, as many economists predict, resentment against Trump will grow and voter turnout in the next elections could be heavy. Only time and circumstances will tell.
While most peoples’ lives may not yet have been affected by the Trump earthquake, our system of government can no longer be considered a modern democracy. Trump is exhibiting all the signs of holding autocratic power.
There is still time. We’re only starting to witness what happens when you dismantle large parts of the federal government and slash federal programs upon which Americans rely. But the real fight will come in the fall of 2026 and 2028. It will be up to the people to realize what’s happening and be willing to go to the polls to change their government…assuming we still have the ballot to bring about that change.