According to much of the punditry, the 2022 mid-term elections were supposed to result in a Republican “Red Wave,” because the media assumed voters would punish Democrats for rapid inflation and a President too old to do anything about it. After the Republican landslide failed to materialize, it became clear that many of Donald Trump’s handpicked candidates – like Georgia’s Herschel Walker who lost his bid for the U.S. Senate – were bad politicians, costing Republicans control of the Senate.
After this failed “Red Wave,” a conservative friend of mine was so angry, when we spoke on the telephone, he unleashed a verbal tirade against former President Trump, wanting him excised from the party. Flash forward to 2024, and while this close friend remains skeptical of Donald Trump, he is going to vote for him in November. I have several Republican friends who fit this mold: not in love with Trump but don’t want another “woke” Democrat in the White House. I get it…
Now, despite Republicans pretty much losing every national election since 2016 – when Donald Trump became the standard bearer for their party – Republicans are again running the former President, hoping this time around, things will be different. I am not convinced.
These are the reasons I think Kamala Harris has the advantage:
- When the conservative Supreme Court – led by Republican justices nominated by President Trump – overturned the federal right to an abortion, they angered millions of women who felt that the government was trampling on their civil rights. In November, these women voters are going to show up and vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.
- Many Republicans (think Liz Cheney) are not pleased with Donald Trump as their nominee. Keep in mind, that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was getting large chunks of voters in the Republican primary – even after she dropped out the race. Many of these Republican voters are not going to vote, will vote for a third-party candidate, or even pull the lever for Kamala Harris.
- Democrats are unified behind Kamala Harris. She has run a disciplined campaign. Yes, there are pockets of resistance. Most notably Arab American voters in the critical swing state of Michigan, who are upset by the U.S.’s weapons transfers to Israel. But their alternative is Donald Trump, who is arguably more supportive of Israel’s military tactics, in the current war, than is President Biden or Vice President Harris.
- This time around the Electoral College seemingly favors Kamala Harris. She has several pathways to 270, while Donald Trump’s path seems narrower. She can afford to lose a key swing state – like Michigan or Pennsylvania – and can make up those losses in other states that are close according to the polls.
- It’s going to be high turnout election. High turnout elections tend to favor Democrats. That was why everyone was so worried that President Biden was going to lose; many left-leaning voters would stay home rather than vote for someone demonstrably too old to serve as President for four more years. The early voting numbers out of Georgia indicate that the electorate is going to show up to vote.
- Lastly, Donald Trump served as President, and the American people decided he wasn’t their top choice to do the job again. Why should that change just four years later?
Still, you cannot deny Donald Trump offers voters a different America, has a devoted constituency, and is a street fighter who always gets back up when knocked down. Sometimes, in life and politics, the dogged determination to win is the best attribute a person can have to, well, win. We’ll see in a few weeks how this all plays out, but my money is on Vice President Kamala Harris.